AI and change: plan, don’t panic
We meet with business leaders every week who are worried or confused about AI. And while there are a lot of unknowns, the best approach is the same one we’ve
The edge of the Amazon rainforest meets the humid sprawl of Belém, where the air is thick with the scent of wet earth and thousands have arrived from every corner of the globe.
They gather in the shadow of what many call the lungs of the world, not for a festival or a summit, but for a reckoning: the kind that happens when the future stops being abstract and starts demanding decisions.
This is COP30 (the 30th UN Climate Change Conference, bringing together representatives from around the world to negotiate and accelerate action on climate change) and while it feels a world away from the coastal scenery and red dirt of home, the arguments that unfold beneath the jungle canopy will shape the spreadsheets, supply chains and staff rosters of Australian businesses for the decade ahead.
Whether you’re sceptical about global climate theatre or quietly hopeful about collective action, the reality is the same: the world is moving. Trillions in capital, new trade rules, workforce shifts and technology bets are flowing toward economies that are getting cleaner, smarter and more resilient.
For Australian SMEs, the question is no longer if this transition will reach us it already has. The question is whether we’ll shape it to work for our regions, our workers and our way of life, or watch it unfold on terms set by others.
That’s why what happened in the Amazon isn’t just headlines. If the new rules are going to benefit someone, why not us? Why not you?
One of COP30’s most significant moments wasn’t what happened in the negotiating rooms, it was who wasn’t there. The Trump administration chose not to send any official US delegation to COP30, marking the second time the United States has withdrawn from the Paris Agreement and stepped back from international climate cooperation.
UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres put it plainly on the penultimate day of negotiations: “We are waiting for you.”
But the world didn’t wait.
Nearly 200 countries moved forward with a global roadmap toward fossil fuel phase-out, climate finance commitments and just transition mechanisms, without US leadership at the table.
For Australia, this absence carries profound implications. We’ve long relied on the United States as our primary strategic and economic partner, often aligning our climate and trade policies with Washington’s direction.
But as economist Ross Garnaut (one of Australia’s most distinguished voices on climate economics and former Australian Ambassador to China) has warned, Trump’s commitment to higher protection, fossil fuel expansion and withdrawal from international climate cooperation means Australia can no longer afford to wait for American leadership or hide behind American inaction.
The good news is that in individual states within the USA, cities and businesses are continuing to drive climate action regardless of federal policy. States representing 55 to 60 per cent of US economic activity remain committed to climate action, and Texas now generates twice as much solar and wind power as California, demonstrating that economic interests can prevail over ideology.
But here’s what matters for Australian businesses: the US withdrawal creates both risk and opportunity. The risk is that some may be tempted to slow transition efforts, thinking American backsliding provides cover.
The opportunity is that Australia can step into a leadership vacuum, shaping global climate finance, supply-chain standards and clean technology markets that the US. is choosing to sit out.
As Garnaut argues, “In climate as in trade, Australia’s and the rest of the world’s best response to the US withdrawal from international cooperation is to remain steady, and if possible to deepen cooperation among themselves.”
He suggested (CEDA Speech, 1 May 2025), the withdrawal of the US from coordinated climate action does not prevent Australia from pursuing global opportunities; instead, Australia’s best response is to maintain momentum, deepen cooperation with other committed countries, and not let American inaction dictate our own path.
The world’s biggest emitter, China, reached peak emissions in 2023 (seven years ahead of its commitments) and sees strategic advantage in stepping up as the US steps out. Europe, Japan, South Korea and our Pacific neighbours are all moving forward.
For those of us running Australian businesses, the message is clear: the global transition isn’t stopping because one country is taking a time-out. If anything, it’s accelerating. The businesses that align with where the world is heading (cleaner supply chains, credible transition plans, workforce development) will win contracts, capital and talent.
Those waiting the US to return to the table risk being left behind by everyone else.
More than you might think. The outcomes from COP30 (and Australia’s surprise role leading the negotiations at next year’s COP31) are already being written into the fine print that governs how Australian businesses will access finance, win contracts and compete for talent. Whether you employ five people or five hundred, the decisions made in Belém are shaping four things that directly affect your business:
Reporting and compliance expectations are tightening. Australia’s new 2035 emissions target (a 62 to 70 per cent reduction below 2005 levels) means businesses caught under mandatory sustainability reporting must now incorporate that target into scenario planning and transition plans.
Even if you’re not caught by those rules today, your larger customers and financiers are, and they’ll be asking you for emissions data, workforce transition plans and evidence that you’re moving in the same direction.
Supply chains are becoming battlegrounds for contracts. Multinational buyers are embedding ‘Paris-aligned’ clauses into procurement contracts, and regulators in the EU and UK are adding just-transition and supply-chain due-diligence requirements similar to modern slavery laws.
Australian exporters in resources, agriculture, manufacturing and logistics should expect audits on workforce plans, Scope 3 emissions and how transitions are managed on the ground.
Finance and investment are following the policy signals. With Australia positioning itself as a renewable energy and critical minerals superpower under the ‘Future Made in Australia’ agenda, investors are looking for businesses that can prove they’re part of that story. Analysis shows a three-year delay in coordinated climate action could double transition costs, meaning early movers stand to capture capital, talent and market share that late adopters will struggle to access.
The ‘do nothing’ option just got riskier. COP30 reinforced that climate policy is no longer just about emissions curves, it’s about jobs, energy prices, workforce skills and whether communities are brought along or left behind.
For SMEs, sitting out these conversations won’t insulate you from higher compliance costs, tighter baselines under the Safeguard Mechanism or losing contracts to competitors who can demonstrate they’re aligned with where markets are heading.
The final COP30 package calls for mobilising at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035 for climate action, alongside tripling adaptation finance. Two major initiatives were launched to help countries deliver on their nationally determined contributions: the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5°C.
For Australian SMEs, this means access to transition finance will expand, but with stricter due diligence, emissions reporting and alignment with Paris-compatible pathways. Early movers with credible transition plans will secure capital and contracts that late adopters will struggle to access.
Countries also agreed to develop a just transition mechanism, enhancing cooperation, technical support and capacity-building to ensure climate action doesn’t leave workers and communities behind.
The emphasis on equity and human-centred solutions means workforce planning, skills development and community engagement will become core components of climate transition plans, expectations that will flow through to procurement and finance conditions.
When Australia stepped back from hosting COP31, the headlines focused on what was lost: the spectacle, the soft-power boost, the chance to showcase our cities and landscapes to the world. But what many missed is what was gained: the Presidency for Negotiation.
Rebecca Mikula-Wright, CEO of the Investor Group on Climate Change, put it plainly:
This isn’t ceremonial. The President for Negotiation shapes the text, brokers the compromises and decides which issues get elevated and which get parked.
Australia holding the COP31 Presidency for Negotiation provides the potential to shape and share in the benefits of an effective global response to the opportunities and threats of climate change. We cannot act alone to minimise climate risks and realise economic opportunities. COP31 provides our best chance to accelerate the global climate action necessary for ongoing stability and prosperity, not just for Australia but for our entire region.
The formal leadership position also gives Australia a platform to influence the ‘Action Agenda’ (the coalitions, financing mechanisms and technology partnerships that sit alongside formal negotiations), ensuring they’re ambitious and maximise opportunities for Australian businesses and the Pacific. Australia and the Pacific’s carriage of the pre-COP programme can also maintain momentum on climate adaptation, with initiatives like the Pacific Resilience Fund being of particular importance to our island neighbours.
You don’t have to love COP to know you can’t ignore what it signals about where money, markets and skills are heading. Many of us running businesses are pragmatic rather than ideological. The question isn’t whether the world is moving (it clearly is) but how fast, who pays and whether Australia keeps control of its economic destiny.
The recurring message from across the political spectrum is this: don’t sacrifice economic strength or sovereignty to global climate politics, but don’t get locked out of new investment, finance and supply chains by refusing to change.
As author Akshat Rathi argues in Climate Capitalism, the most scalable climate solutions are emerging inside capitalist systems, where policy, profit and innovation reinforce each other. His core point (that it now makes more economic sense to back climate solutions than to resist them) resonates with business owners who might be sceptical of activism but are highly attuned to margins, competition and risk.
The race to net zero is not a morality play, it’s a business contest. And Australian SMEs are either in that race or watching from the stands.
Whether you see COP as progress or theatre, it’s where the guardrails for the next decade of business are being argued over. Ignoring that won’t make the rules go away. Here’s what we should be doing now:
Map your transition exposure. Identify where higher carbon prices, changing customer requirements or new regulations could hit your margins, especially in energy-intensive operations, freight, construction and export-oriented sectors.
Position for workforce opportunity. Use the emerging skills agenda from COP30 to position your business as a place where workers can learn low-carbon skills, from electrification and energy management to data and circular design.
Engage with supply-chain expectations. Expect more requests for emissions data, human-rights due diligence and just-transition policies from larger customers. Start with simple measurement and transparent improvement plans.
Partner locally, think regionally. Look for collaborations with local councils, industry clusters and Pacific partners that align with “Future Made in Australia” and a fair transition narrative.
Australia will be brokering the rules on climate finance flows, supply-chain standards, just transition mechanisms and technology transfer during 2026 (the exact frameworks that will determine which businesses can access concessional capital, win international contracts and attract skilled workers). If Australian negotiators push for practical, business-enabling outcomes rather than symbolic gestures, we stand to benefit from clearer rules, better access to transition finance and stronger regional partnerships.
The question is whether we’ll engage with this moment or let it pass while others write the playbook. When the rules change, do you want to be writing them, racing to catch up, or watching your competitors pull ahead?
This week, the federal government is pushing for significant environmental law reform led by Environment Minister Murray Watt. The proposed Environment Protection Reform Bill aims to deliver stronger protections for nature, faster and more transparent project approvals, and clearer reporting standards for business. With negotiations still underway and a final decision expected soon, I’ll be following these developments closely and will share a practical wrap-up for Australian businesses once the outcomes are known.
At Write Way Up, we help leaders of small and medium-sized businesses align purpose with sustainable performance.
If you want your business to thrive, let’s connect.
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